Run, Donald, run!
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A Trump 2024 announcement would give the Democrats the best chance in the midterms
Speculation about the next presidential election began right after the 2020 election but I don’t think it ever has been a question that the last guy wants to be the next guy. Former President Donald Trump desperately wants to prove he was right in 2020. He desperately wants to get back into the White House. He desperately needs to be the center of everyone’s attention.
On the flip side of this equation, you have the fate of Congress. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats in Congress during the midterms. The American Presidency Project looked at this phenomenon. According to their analysis, Franklin Delano Roosevelt lost a whopping 81 seats in the House in the 1938 election. Barack Obama lost 63 in 2010. Trump lost 40 in 2018. Even if nothing happened at all for President Joe Biden, with the razor-thin majorities on both sides of Capitol Hill, the odds were good that he would lose Congress. Given the bad economy, the continuing Covid pandemic (and rise of Monkeypox), and a series of unforced errors on Biden’s part, it was looking like a fall bloodbath for the Democrats.
Then Roe v. Wade was overturned. That was the first thing to start to turn the tide for the Democrats. The New York Times is reporting the Republican Party has seen a sharp decline in small donations.
Small-dollar donations typically increase as an election nears. But just the opposite has happened in recent months across a wide range of Republican entities, including every major party committee and former President Donald J. Trump’s political operation.
The total amount donated online fell by more than 12 percent across all federal Republican campaigns and committees in the second quarter compared with the first quarter, according to an analysis of federal records from WinRed, the main online Republican donation-processing portal.
More alarming for Republicans: Democratic contributions surged at the same time. Total federal donations on ActBlue, the Democratic counterpart, jumped by more than 21 percent.
Before anyone gets excited about this, it doesn’t mean the GOP will not have enough money. They have enough megadonors to…